bosnia report
No. 13 January - 1996
 
Demographics of Bosnia-Herzegovina after Dayton
by    Estimated ethnic breakdown of prewar population in proposed 'Entities'  Absolute Figures   Bosnia-Herzegovina Federation* 'Republika Srpska' Brcko (subject to arbitration)

* (HVO control:
Bosnian Army control:

1991 Total
4,364,574
2,687,849
1,590,394
86,331

563,000
2,122,000

Serbs
1,369,258
530,418
820,707
18,133

94,000
436,000

Bosniaks
1,905,829
1,352,904
514,155
38,770

127,000
1,225,000

Croats
755,895
584,860
148,872
22,163

316,000
269,000

Other
333,592
219,667
106,660
7,265

26,000
193,000)

Percentages

Bosnia-Herzegovina
Federation
'Republika Srpska'
100%
100%
100%
31.3%
19.7%
51.6%
43.7%
50.3%
32.3%
17.3%
21.8%
9.3%
7.7%
8.1%
6.7%
Approximate Division of Constituent Nations
(if all refugees went home)
 
Serbs:
Bosniaks:
Croats
59.9% in 'Republika Srpska'
71.0% in Federation
77.4% in Federation
38.7% in Federation
27.0% in 'Republika Srpska'
19.7% in 'Republika Srpska'
Reintegration of Sarajevo
Prewar ethnic breakdown of Greater Sarajevo municipalities to be transferred to Federation control after Dayton Agreement comes into force (including estimated figures for Grbavica district)
 
Total
151,500
Serb
55,000
Bosniak
72,000
Croat
11,500
Other
13,000

NOTE: The figures given here are only approximate, since the front lines frozen by the current ceasefire naturally do not exactly coincide with prewar municipal boundaries. They are nevertheless fairly accurate. They make it clear that the 'Entities', although having a formal ethnic identity, in fact merely reflect the results of the war and in no sense represent a 'solution' for any one of the three main national groups in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

At the same time, while lip-service is paid to multi-ethnicity in the Dayton Accords, notably in the rhetoric about right of refugees to return home, it ÌÌÌÌÌÌÌ̸is explicitly denied by the detailed constitutional arrangements. Not only do the 'Entities' bear ethnic labels, but their representation on the elective organ's of the future Bosnia-Herzegovina is ethnically restricted in other words, even were all refugees to be registered and vote in genuinely free elections, the non-Serb half of the 'Republika Srpska' population and the non-Bosniak/non-Croat third of the 'Federation' population would be disenfranchised, since only Serbs can represent the former, only Bosniaks and Croats the latter.

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