Report in The International Herald Tribune summarizing the West's projected scenario for Kosova's independence in the first months of 2008

Kosovo will declare its independence in the first two months of 2008 and will be recognized by Britain, France, Italy and Germany within 48 hours, under a plan to be proposed by Slovenia after it assumes the presidency of the European Union in January, senior EU officials said Wednesday.

The officials described a carefully orchestrated declaration of independence, probably after Serbian elections in early February, followed by a welcome from the EU and diplomatic recognition by Europe's biggest nations. More groups of countries will then recognize an independent Kosovo in a rolling series of announcements, led by the United States, the officials said. Washington would be followed by Switzerland, Iceland and Norway before another group made up of Turkey, Macedonia, Albania Montenegro, Croatia and Slovenia joined in. The 56 members of the Organization of the Islamic Conference would follow suit.

The looming declaration of independence is the biggest test of European foreign policy for years. In the 1990s the EU's failure to intervene in the Balkan wars, and its reliance on the United States to halt the bloodshed, was seen as a humiliating failure of European political will.

Immediately after the declaration of independence, Slovenia would like to have a statement by EU foreign ministers endorsing it. That would clear the way for a European police and judicial mission that would take over from the current United Nations administration in July or August.

The issue will be discussed further at a meeting of EU foreign ministers, which might be brought forward after the declaration of independence, or might take place in March. All of the elements of the Slovenian plan are subject to approval by the EU members. The plans drawn up by Slovenia are crafted to minimize the risk of a new Balkan crisis and maintain as much unity as possible among European nations, the officials said.

European leaders are determined to try to avoid a repeat of the 1990s and to assert their own influence in the face of pressure from Russia, which supports Serbia in its opposition to independence for Kosovo. ‘We must be fast and decisive because the EU is showing it's boss in its own courtyard,’ said one EU diplomat, speaking on the condition of anonymity. ‘We want to show we don't need Washington or Moscow to tell us what to do.’ ‘We are fighting for unity in action as well as words. We need fast and decisive moves,’ the diplomat said. ‘We must leave no space that will create a vacuum.’ The first former Communist country to hold the EU presidency, Slovenia is a former Yugoslav republic, making its role in the process highly symbolic.

Kosovo remains technically part of Serbia, and two rounds of Serbian elections are due to be held on 20 January and 8 February. A declaration of independence in Kosovo before those dates would be likely to play into the hands of nationalist forces in Belgrade. The EU will put pressure on the Kosovars to delay their declaration until after the elections, providing that the Serbs do not postpone them. After the declaration, the EU will also try to organize a donor conference designed to start a series of infrastructure projects aimed at improving electricity supply and road networks.

Close attention is being paid to the diplomatic aftermath of the declaration of independence because of the experience of the 1990s when the early recognition of an independent Croatia accelerated the break-up of Yugoslavia. Washington and Brussels agree that the first group to recognize Kosovo should be European.

Some countries in the European Union, such as Spain, are worried that recognition will encourage other separatist movements in Europe. But most policy makers said they believed there was no alternative to independence in this case. ‘If we want to stabilize Kosovo, there is no alternative but to establish a state because, without this, Kosovo has become a paradise for criminals, ‘ one official said.

Meanwhile, as part of a package of measure for the Balkans, Macedonia and Albania are likely to be invited to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization at its summit meeting in Bucharest in April 2008.

Stephen Castle reported from Brussels, Dan Bilefsky from Prishtina. This reported appeared in The International Herald Tribune, 12 December 2007

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